White papers and essays on credibility assessment, decision-making under uncertainty, and the architecture of trust.
Essay
And what that tells us about the future of artificial intelligence
For forty years, algorithms have outperformed human judgment on well-defined tasks. And yet we haven't been replaced. The standard explanations are unsatisfying. The real answer is simpler: algorithms achieved accuracy. They never achieved credibility. The gap was never capability. The gap was architecture.
Essay
On the Economic Rationality of Reputation Systems
Trust is not just a feeling. It is the willingness to transact without significant contemplation. This essay examines the economics of credibility: the hidden costs of maximum reliability, threshold effects in buyer behavior, the paradox of perfect ratings, and why companies operating at maximum credibility while pricing at market average are subsidizing someone else's margin.
White Paper
A Unified Framework for Judgment Under Uncertainty
Forensic credibility assessment operates in adversarial environments subject to forensic audit. This paper argues that the architecture underlying valid forensic judgment is identical to the architecture now being sought for artificial intelligence systems, and that the forensic community possesses operational knowledge that the AI field urgently needs.
White Paper
Instability as Adaptive Reasoning in Perceptual Systems
Perception under uncertainty is conventionally framed as breakdown. This paper proposes an alternative: instability is not breakdown but adaptive reasoning in motion. Using color vision deficiency as a model system, I argue that perceptual categories cycle between phenomenological and actuarial processing modes—a framework that extends to anxiety, credibility assessment, and trust formation.